Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: A review

International audienceThe generation of rainfall and other climate data needs a range of models depending on the time and spatial scales involved. Most of the models used previously do not take into account year to year variations in the model parameters. Long periods of wet and dry years were observed in the past but were not taken into account. Recently, Thyer and Kuczera (1999) developed a hidden state Markov model to account for the wet and dry spells explicitly in annual rainfall. This review looks firstly at traditional time series models and then at the more complex models which take account of the pseudo-cycles in the data. Monthly rainfall data have been generated successfully by using the method of fragments. The main criticism of this approach is the repetitions of the same yearly pattern when only a limited number of years of historical data are available. This deficiency has been overcome by using synthetic fragments but this brings an additional problem of generating the right number of months with zero rainfall. Disaggregation schemes are effective in obtaining monthly data but the main problem is the large number of parameters to be estimated when dealing with many sites. Several simplifications have been proposed to overcome this problem. Models for generating daily rainfall are well developed. The transition probability matrix method preserves most of the characteristics of daily, monthly and annual characteristics and is shown to be the best performing model. The two-part model has been shown by many researchers to perform well across a range of climates at the daily level but has not been tested adequately at monthly or annual levels. A shortcoming of the existing models is the consistent underestimation of the variances of the simulated monthly and annual totals. As an alternative, conditioning model parameters on monthly amounts or perturbing the model parameters with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) result in better agreement between the variance of the simulated and observed annual rainfall and these approaches should be investigated further. As climate data are less variable than rainfall, but are correlated among themselves and with rainfall, multisite-type models have been used successfully to generate annual data. The monthly climate data can be obtained by disaggregating these annual data. On a daily time step at a site, climate data have been generated using a multisite type model conditional on the state of the present and previous days. The generation of daily climate data at a number of sites remains a challenging problem. If daily rainfall can be modelled successfully by a censored power of normal distribution then the model can be extended easily to generate daily climate data at several sites simultaneously. Most of the early work on the impacts of climate change used historical data adjusted for the climate change. In recent studies, stochastic daily weather generation models are used to compute climate data by adjusting the parameters appropriately for the future climates assumed

The Infrared Properties of Submillimeter Galaxies: Clues From Ultra-Deep 70 Micron Imaging

We present 70 micron properties of submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) North field. Out of thirty submillimeter galaxies (S_850 > 2 mJy) in the central GOODS-N region, we find two with secure 70 micron detections. These are the first 70 micron detections of SMGs. One of the matched SMGs is at z ~ 0.5 and has S_70/S_850 and S_70/S_24 ratios consistent with a cool galaxy. The second SMG (z = 1.2) has infrared-submm colors which indicate it is more actively forming stars. We examine the average 70 micron properties of the SMGs by performing a stacking analysis, which also allows us to estimate that S_850 > 2 mJy SMGs contribute 9 +- 3% of the 70 micron background light. The S_850/S_70 colors of the SMG population as a whole is best fit by cool galaxies, and because of the redshifting effects these constraints are mainly on the lower z sub-sample. We fit Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) to the far-infrared data points of the two detected SMGs and the average low redshift SMG (z_{median}= 1.4). We find that the average low-z SMG has a cooler dust temperature than local ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) of similar luminosity and an SED which is best fit by scaled up versions of normal spiral galaxies. The average low-z SMG is found to have a typical dust temperature T = 21 -- 33 K and infrared luminosity L_{8-1000 micron} = 8.0 \times 10^11 L_sun. We estimate the AGN contribution to the total infrared luminosity of low-z SMGs is less than 23%.Comment: Accepted by ApJ. 14 pages, 6 figures. Minor revisions 20th Dec 200

Large-scale structure in a new deep IRAS galaxy redshift survey

We present here the first results from two recently completed, fully sampled redshift surveys comprising 3703 IRAS Faint Source Survey (FSS) galaxies. An unbiased counts-in-cells analysis finds a clustering strength in broad agreement with other recent redshift surveys and at odds with the standard cold dark matter model. We combine our data with those from the QDOT and 1.2 Jy surveys, producing a single estimate of the IRAS galaxy clustering strength. We compare the data with the power spectrum derived from a mixed dark matter universe. Direct comparison of the clustering strength seen in the IRAS samples with that seen in the APM-Stromlo survey suggests b_O/b_I=1.20+/-0.05 assuming a linear, scale independent biasing. We also perform a cell by cell comparison of our FSS-z sample with galaxies from the first CfA slice, testing the viability of a linear-biasing scheme linking the two. We are able to rule out models in which the FSS-z galaxies identically trace the CfA galaxies on scales 5-20h^{-1}Mpc. On scales of 5 and 10h^{-1}Mpc no linear-biasing model can be found relating the two samples. We argue that this result is expected since the CfA sample includes more elliptical galaxies which have different clustering properties from spirals. On scales of 20h^{-1}Mpc no linear-biasing model with b_O/b_I < 1.70 is acceptable. When comparing the FSS-z galaxies to the CfA spirals, however, the two populations trace the same structures within our uncertaintie

VLBI imaging of extremely high redshift quasars at 5 GHz

We present very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) images of ten very high redshift (z>3) quasars at 5 GHz. The sources 0004+139, 0830+101, 0906+041, 0938+119 and 1500+045 were observed in September 1992 using a global VLBI array, while 0046+063, 0243+181, 1338+381, 1428+423 and 1557+032 were observed in October 1996 with the European VLBI Network and Hartebeesthoek, South Africa. Most of the sources are resolved and show asymmetric structure. The sample includes 1428+423, the most distant radio loud quasar known to date (z=4.72). It is barely resolved with an angular resolution of about 2.0*1.4 mas.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics, in press, Latex2e, 10 pages, 3 figures (and lots of sub-figures

Simple Metals at High Pressure

In this lecture we review high-pressure phase transition sequences exhibited by simple elements, looking at the examples of the main group I, II, IV, V, and VI elements. General trends are established by analyzing the changes in coordination number on compression. Experimentally found phase transitions and crystal structures are discussed with a brief description of the present theoretical picture.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures, lecture notes for the lecture given at the Erice course on High-Pressure Crystallography in June 2009, Sicily, Ital